(Hadalsame) 19 November 2018<\/strong><\/span> – The diplomatic row between Qatar and its Gulf Arab neighbors has now become a protracted stalemate. Despite its diplomatic connections and petrodollar soaked influence, Saudi Arabia, the key conspirator in the regional posturing game, has so far gained precious little for their monumental decision to impose a debilitating economic blockade on Qatar.<\/p>\n

So far even Egypt and U.S. President Donald Trump\u2019s outspoken support has proven insufficient to convince the international community that Qatar ought to be isolated and rendered a pariah or is a den for terrorists and terrorist sympathizers.<\/p>\n

It has been a tough month for Riyadh. The response from the Horn of Africa has been notably mixed. The Saudis appear particularly blindsided by Somalia\u2019s decision to maintain its neutrality in the ongoing diplomatic crisis. Mogadishu has refused to take sides, urging Gulf states to back Kuwaiti mediation efforts.<\/p>\n

Somalia\u2019s bold stance appears to be an unexpected setback for the Saudis. For one, since his election last February, Somali President Mohammed Farmaajo has made two state visits to Riyadh. And he even appeared to have forged a warm relationship with Saudi leaders. Second, Mogadishu has previously backed the Saudi Arabia-led, anti-Houthi coalition in Yemen<\/a>. This may have led the Saudis to assume that they had Somalia\u2019s total obedience.<\/p>\n

But apparently even an offer of $80 million<\/a>\u00a0couldn\u2019t woo Farmaajo into siding with the Saudis and publicly denouncing Qatar. Qatar and Somalia enjoy a long fraternal relations and Mogadishu clearly values those ties. Somalia has even allowed Qatar to increase use of its airspace as a result of Saudi Arabia cutting off land and sea access <\/a>to them. Farmaajo\u2019s refusal to budge also underscores the Saudi government\u2019s poor planning of its diplomatic siege on Qatar.<\/p>\n

Riyadh\u2019s infamous demands, submitted to Doha as a precondition for negotiations, including the closure of Al Jazeera media network, has made the oil-rich Kingdom the subject of much ridicule online<\/a>. Qatar has adjusted to the initial shock of the sudden halt in imports and air traffic from Saudi Arabia, in part thanks to the import goods from Turkey, among other places. Doha has thus far proved that it is not a fragile island that is on the brink of collapse. All in all, Saudi Arabia\u2019s predictions have mostly turned out to be wrong.<\/p>\n

Vengeful Saudi Arabia seeking to shake the Farmaajo leadership\u2019s foundations<\/strong><\/p>\n

Saudi Arabia is undoubtedly miffed by the actions of Farmaajo\u2019s government. In fact, Saudi Arabia is allegedly plotting punitive measures <\/a>against the Somali government. A recent (covert Saudi-backed) attempt to pass a motion in parliament seeking Farmaajo\u2019s impeachment fell flat, according to Somali Update<\/i>. The motion was tabled by a number of politicians including Somalia\u2019s former Prime Minister and opposition MP Omar Abdirashid Ali Sharmarke.<\/p>\n

Sharmarke\u2019s links to the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which has cut ties with Qatar and banned imports as part of the Saudi-led blockade, are well known. Saudi Arabia apparently tried to exploit this link to the Somali parliament in a vain effort to bring down the Farmaajo government for refusing to cut ties with Qatar.<\/p>\n

The UAE operates a military base in the semi-autonomous region of Somaliland against the wishes of Mogadishu<\/a>. The UAE might increase its presence in Somaliland, which is still officially part of Somalia, as an intimidation tactic. Saudi Arabia won\u2019t rest on scheming to perturb a sense of political normalcy for the Farmaajo government. This puts Mogadishu\u2019s struggling government on high alert.<\/p>\n

Despite the mounting pressure, Farmaajo\u2019s approach towards the Saudis is a clear break from the practice of his predecessors. Somalia\u2019s third President, Siad Barre, who led Somalia from 1969 till his ouster in 1991, also faced bullying and intimidation from Saudi Arabia to protect the kingdom\u2019s regional interests. Barre, was coerced into launching a large-scale military invasion of Ethiopia although \u2014as diplomatic cables would later reveal \u2014 the Somali leader had second thoughts on the necessity of that war. The story of Saudi Arabia\u2019s role in the Ogaden war, fought some 40 years ago, has only been documented fleetingly.<\/p>\n

The Ogaden War<\/strong><\/p>\n

Forty years ago, the Horn of Africa, which at the time was the site of deeply dug cold war ideological trenches, saw years of brewing resentment and a clash in political aspirations result in the 1977-78 Ogaden war, in which nearly 15,000 Ethiopians and Somalis lost their lives. The two countries, buoyed by superpower backers on either side of the iron curtain, threw everything plus the kitchen sink at each other in a senseless war over \u201cnational pride.\u201d The Ethiopian army, unprepared and bogged down by internal resistance had no initial response to the lightning advances of the invading Somali army, that plowed through their defenses and took over nearly 80 percent of the Ogaden region in mere months.<\/p>\n

Afterwards, the Soviets turned on their former Somali allies and started to back the Ethiopian war effort, sending weapons, troops and advisors as the Ethiopians finally pushed out Somali troops, reversing their gains. It was over in eight months and seen as a Soviet victory over imperial capitalism. Capitalism, because after the Soviets switched over to Ethiopia, the U.S. decided to capitalize on the opportunity to gain a foothold in the region \u2014by arming Somalia. They couldn\u2019t forestall Somalia\u2019s defeat, handing the Soviets a propaganda coup for the hammer and sickle. It also served as a gloating opportunity for proponents of Ethiopian nationalism, despite the pyrrhic nature of Ethiopia\u2019s war victory.<\/p>\n

Ethiopians and Somalis of the Ogaden War era<\/strong><\/p>\n

A generation of pre-millennial Somalis and Ethiopians, young men and women in their prime during the 1970s and 80s, were pan-nationalists and revolutionaries who forever changed the fates of their respective countries. The history of the Horn of Africa was forever altered by the outspoken, determined, and no nonsense youths of both states. In the case of Somalia, a nation barely a decade or so into independence, the country\u2019s elites had designs on reuniting what they deemed to be occupied Somali territories. But now, buoyed by the empowered voices of the Somali Youth League, the country\u2019s first political party which spearheaded the independence movement, a generation of Somalis ideologues demanded concrete action to restore their nation\u2019s honor and pride.<\/p>\n